Croatian President – attitudes toward Russian aggression in Ukraine

Croatian President – attitudes toward Russian aggression in Ukraine

Croatian President Zoran Milanović expressed his attitudes toward Russian aggression in Ukraine in many statements since the start of the full-scale invasion. This analysis represents a volume of analytical contributions made by the Centre for Public Policy and Economic Analysis (CEA).

This analysis is a part of the project Detektor CEA Think Tank Detektor. The mission of this project is to detect populist disinformation and geopolitical risks for Croatia and transatlantic institutions (EU & NATO) associated with Russian and Chinese influence. This is in line with CEA’s vision and mission – to bring the light of freedom and fact-based policymaking and to be frontrunners with policy solutions for a more free, competitive, and secure transatlantic alliance.

 

I. Matija Horvat – member of the Executive Board of CEA

Introduction in Croatian political system and recent President’s rhetoric

Russian aggression on Ukraine started back in 2014 with illegal annexation of Crimea. Croatian president Zoran Milanović won the elections in the beginning of 2020 and started his tenure as Croatia’s 5^th President. Croatia is a parliamentary republic, where the Government has the most of executive powers. However, according to Croatian Constitution, some executive powers are shared. E.g., The President of the Republic and the Government of the Republic of Croatia cooperate in shaping and implementing foreign policy. (Art. 99 of the Constitution). The President of the Republic is elected based on universal and equal suffrage in direct elections by secret ballot for a period of five years and is a vital factor who takes care of regular and coordinated action and the stability of the state (Art. 94 of the Constitution). Moreover, the President of the Republic is a supreme commander (in chief) of armed forces (Art. 100 of the Constitution).

After the death of the first President – Franjo Tuđman – the semi-presidential system was changed to a parliamentary system. However, the institution of the President retained a smaller part of direct authority, and the institution of the President of the Republic (as a head of the state) is not 100 % a ceremonial figure. Due to the Constitutional reform, some parts and provisions of Croatian Constitution remained incomplete or vague, and there are problems (of cohabitation with the Government) at the legislative level as well.

Even before the full-scale invasion on Ukraine (from the beginning of 2022) and onwards, President Milanović constantly has a different (basically opposite) view of the Russian aggression, compared to the policy of the center-right government. The Prime Minister and the government took a strong action to support Ukraine and condemn Russian aggression. On the other hand, the President often remains neutral or non–aligned (he would say – cautious). He thinks that as a small country we shouldn’t be so loud towards Russia. He forgets that Baltic states are also loud towards Russia because they know what Russia is and what Russia wants – they are not afraid of them. President would say that Baltic people hate Russia, but he omits the fact – why would they have this kind of attitude towards Russia in the first place. Sometimes, the President is repeating the Kremlin’s narrative on certain issues (e.g., NATO expansion gone too far; poking the big bear; Russian army is invincible; we should be afraid of them; since they are dangerous, we should not send weapons for Ukraine, and that prolongs the war, and no one talks about peace etc.).

President’s political background

It is important to note that President Milanović started his political career as a social democrat (SDP is a center-left opposition party) – with great experience in diplomacy and international relations. Sometimes he said about his worldview, that he considers himself a liberal or Calvinist. But when he took power, even as a former prime minister (2011 -2015), his worldview, rhetoric and sometimes actions, somehow changed. From a pro-Western politician, he shifted to a new age sovereigntist position.

Most of Croatian electorate is tied with the Roman Catholic Church, which has a certain impact on politicians. The war for independence, which Croatia fought back in 1991 – 1995, remains an important part of (rhetoric in) domestic politics. Serbian nationalistic aggression with the help of (at that time still communist) Yugoslav people’s army (whose generals, even then, went to USSR for some advice) and a rebellion of native Serbs in Croatia, produced resentment or indignation towards leftist parties, because, (socialistic) regime in the Socialistic Republic of Croatia (before 1990) was impotent to Serbian mutiny in Croatia from the outset (and on first free elections in 1990, Serbs voted for communist parties). That’s why Croatia, as our homeland, wanted to cut all ties with communist Yugoslavia – which, at that time, was basically greater Serbia (with, at least, nominally – socialist features). President Milanović was old enough to be in a war, but as a good (law) student he pursued a career instead (in the same way as prime minister Plenković, who is often a main target of President’s jovial eloquence).

Because of all mentioned, it is almost impossible to win parliamentary or presidential elections in Croatia solely on social – liberal, new left, green-left or some other variant of the leftist (or economically liberal, that is not related to a national sentiment) political program. The agenda on the (political) table is always slightly patriotic, like in all transitional countries (and maybe in the whole western world), which is not necessarily a bad thing. For as long as he was the leader of the social democratic party in the opposition and when he was in power as prime minister, Mr. Milanović spoke of himself as a liberal-Calvinist, and that he respects our traditional way of life and that we all should keep our traditional way. But, like most politicians, he is everything that can help him to win the elections (like an empty screen to which we add ingredients or content) and this is where we reach the limit of populism, imminent to many politicians.

New political circumstances connected with our past

The problem arises with the emerging of so-called sovereigntist movements, all-right parties and similar affiliations in Europe or the Western world that are somehow connected with Russian influence, propaganda, disinformation, corruption etc. Russian collusion is not an expression that is only associated with the American elections. In Croatia, like in other free countries, there is a notion that we should be very cautious regarding Russian aggression on Ukraine, even when we know that it is a threat to the (western) values of the free world. Some actors in Croatia are connected with Russian capital (e.g., “Prvo plinarsko društvo – PPD” Ltd.; PPD entered into a natural gas sales agreement with “Gazprom”!) and they are trying to put their business agenda through political decision making. It is not yet clear (nobody is publicly investigating) wheatear the President is influenced by some pro-Russian persons in his vicinity or is he strictly trying to win a popular vote by fighting for national interests (which he sees differently compared to incumbent government).

However, in Croatia (despite of the fact that we were victims of Serbian aggression) there is also a problem of innate neutrality. To be specific, because Croatia is an independent state for only 32 years (in the beginning of the war, referendum for independence was held in May 1991 and Croatia was internationally recognized as independent in January 1992) our foreign policy still has certain problems in addressing our national interest. And national interest is something that president Milanović often speaks about. Certain part of the electorate and President as their spokesman would say that we should be very cautious when the big countries fight wars. That notion originates from the beginning of WW2. At that time, president of the Croatian Peasant Party and Croatian opposition leader in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia (monarchist version of greater Serbia) was Vladko Maček. There is a saying that is attributed to him – When the big ones are fighting, the little ones must be under the table (hrv. Kad se veliki tuku, malima je mjesto pod stolom). This – people’s logic – means that small countries (like Croatia) must be silent in dangerous times. Vladko Maček was a decent individual, with pro-western orientation (as anti-communist he died in exile in Washington D.C.). He knew that western Allies would win over nazi Germany, but in challenging times he proposed some form of neutrality, because – we could get hurt.

Despite of this, Croatia did get hurt and suffered greatly in WW2. Back then, at first, Croatian citizens did welcome the creation of Independent State of Croatia (to break down with Serbian hegemony in monarchist Yugoslavia). Soon as the war crimes of fascist regime became known, most Croatians took neutral stand (which we call internally – domobranstvo – according to the Home front forces that were also a part of our tradition – e.g. in Austrian-Hungary army – that did not have fascist affiliations but nevertheless served under the regime). This neutral (hrv. slang domobranski) stand of most Croatian citizens didn’t stop further nazi genocide of non-Croatians in WW2 and it (indirectly) facilitated totalitarian communist rule after the WW2, because bullies are not interested in neutrality and dictators only stop when they are stopped. Maček forgot the other old saying: To sin by silence, when we should protest, makes cowards of men.

There is one more thing that came after WW2. Tito’s regime, because of the distinguished legacy of defeating nazis and fascists in Yugoslavia, had great international reputation. During the cold war, communist Yugoslavia was one of the founders of the non-aligned movement. So, part of this neutral/non-aligned stand, also has its roots in the fight for social justice of smaller nations, which emerged from the decolonization movement. Traditional part of Croatians looks at Maček as role model in international relations and people who are more sympathetic towards social(ist) justice are praising the achievements of non – aligned countries during cold – war era. Sadly, they are forgetting that non-aligned movement also had some rotten apples inside (Gaddafi, Idi Dada Amin, Saddam Hussein, Sukarno, Suharto, Mugabe, etc.) and that they often supported USSR. In this regard, we also shouldn’t forget the tradition of the Republic of Dubrovnik or Ragusa in the Middle Ages. City of Dubrovnik, as a republic, had democratic institutions and was in good relations, through commerce, with everybody: The Ottomans, The Austrians, Venice, Russia, etc. Some say that we should be prudent like our ancestors from Dubrovnik (business as usual?).

New political attitude of President Milanović

President Milanović took both-sides (or all sides) of this legacy, amplifying Maček’s traditionalist neutrality with new-age sovereignty rhetoric that can be heard in all the countries of the free world and in the global south. Regarding Russian terrorist aggression in Ukraine, President Milanović is repeating the same words as Orban in Hungary does (or Bulgarian president, or autocrat Erdogan, or some politicians in Slovakia, Czechia, Greece, Italy France, Germany, Nigel Farage, etc.). But when sovereigntist and autocrat Orban is talking about borders in Europe (also, Croatian borders) in a revisionist manner (as the Russians are, as did the Serbs in the 1980’s, 1990’s and now), sovereigntist Milanović just says it’s an innocent joke or folklore that isn’t dangerous.

In the beginning of his career, Orban was a liberal and now he is a nationalistic autocrat that governs a hybrid regime. Milanović was in the beginning also a pro-Western social democrat, and now he is trying to be new Franjo Tuđman (first president of Croatia), only without executive powers, but with the same rhetoric and isolationist stance. The absurd public position of chancellor and amateur cartographer Orban, every time demonstratively insults the Croatian citizens, but also destroys the values of the European Union and international law in general. This is a deliberate humiliation of Europe and condonation of Russia’s terrorist actions. This is a deliberate justification of the aggressor and encouragement to continue the destruction of Ukraine and Europe. And we mustn’t be silent just for the sake of good relations with Hungary. Nobody should act like Orban.

On the other hand, what is even more striking, is the President’s partnership with Milorad Dodik in Bosnia & Herzegovina (Dodik is the president of the Serbian entity in Bosnia & Herzegovina – BiH, former member of BiH presidency and leader of the biggest political party – Alliance of independent social democrats). President Milanović says that he gets along with Dodik, because he is the leader of Serbs in B&H and he (Dodik) respects arrangements (unlike unitary Bosniaks). To be a partner with a leader of the Serbs (in Bosnia or anywhere) could be very strange political stand for traditional Croatians, but most of President’s voters (in a way) ignore that un-logical political attitude. Unfortunately, the deficiency in the fundaments of Dayton Peace Accord – which does not recognize the existence of ethnic leaders, but de facto acknowledges it – does not help in solving questions. The existence of Serbian entity is fundamental mistake of international community and peace settlement in B&H. Nobody should act like Dodik.

Dodik was also, at first, an American man in BiH. He was also a social – democrat who did not have a political role in war and Serbian aggression in BiH. But voters in the territory of former Yugoslavia (or in Balkans in general) like the strong patriotic leader and Dodik became just that and now constantly threatens the territorial integrity of B&H with secession rhetoric. The main problem also is that Serbian people (in the Balkans) have never gone through a catharsis. Although they were defeated in Croatia, in BiH Serbs got their own entity that was based on ethnic cleansing and certain parts of their electorate negate genocide in Srebrenica (when he was an American man, Dodik acknowledged genocide, but now he denies it). The situation in Kosovo ignites the complexity of Western Balkans because Serbs want their new form of territorial autonomy there and they also deny Kosovo’s independence. Behind all is a new soft power concept called srpski svet (Serbian world, which is fundamentally Balkan version of Russian world). This ideology – which tries to capture, by peaceful means, what they couldn’t get in war – is orchestrated by Serbian autocrat Aleksandar Vučić. It is a mistake to look at Vučić as a factor of stability. Nobody should act like Vučić.

To be in a good company with politicians like Orban or Dodik (Vučić is not in President’s binoculars that often) is a great political mistake of President Milanović. To relativize their pro – Russian political agenda does not serve him well. Of course, President Milanović would say that he is merely respecting our Constitution fighting for our national interest, because nobody will fight our battles except us (and for us). He admits that Croatia is a part of the Western world, but somewhere on the way (he got lost and), he is making compromises with corrupt politicians and relativizes Russian aggression on Ukraine repeating the narrative from Moscow, Budapest Belgrade, or Banja Luka. What connects them all – Orban, Dodik an Milanović – is that, at the beginning of their political careers – they were all pro-Western orientated politicians. Now, they have lost their liberal, social – democratic and western values and are projecting dangerous populist influence in the political arena. They became new age populists who preach new age sovereignty. On the other hand, Vučić was never pro-western. First, he was radical war monger (it is all documented, but free world ignores that fact just for the sake of stability or further escalation), then he re-branded himself and his (new) party as Christian – democrat/conservative/progressive. Today he is saying something like the day Milosevic was overthrown was not a good day for Serbs. Please remember that in their political worldview, Serbs (as Russians) are always victims, they never attacked anybody, western values are the problem, etc.

President Milanović was once an optimistic opposition leader in Croatia and now he relativizes everything. He lost a capacity for reforms (maybe never had one) and often just comments things in his characteristic populist way. Cynics would say that he has a problem for every solution. The president will never loudly criticize the lack of democracy in other countries, probably because he thinks it would be interfering in the internal affairs of other countries (dictator Xi Jinping likes this). For him, like for his partners (Dodik & Orban), there are no common European values (we are in the EU because of the funds and money/There is a danger of further European federalism and losing our sovereignty, etc.). As a supreme commander of the armed forces he also has a distinctive neutral stand regarding NATO Alliance and its Article 5 (we became part of the NATO because of Serbia, our soldiers will not go to the Baltics or Ukraine to fight wars, etc. – and saying this, he forgets that his partner Dodik also blatantly sabotages BIH in joining to NATO or who sees NATO only as a threat to his corrupt nationalistic policy). President forgets or does not know that NATO was created because of looming Russian threat from the outset of the Cold War. At this point President Milanović does not show autocratic tendencies (as a President his executive powers are not significant), but his rhetoric is robustly populist as foreigners don’t need to like him, because he servs only to Croatian people. Unfortunately, he became the Balkan version of populist politician. Since the beginning of our history, Croatia is trying to escape from Balkan, nevertheless Balkan still follows us. Some politicians are guilty of that and at this point – as a dominant orator – President Milanović does not have a worthy and strong competitor in the fight for a second term.

What should be a Croatian stand in international arena?

In times like these, a small country like Croatia can have only one basic stand in international relations – one that is based on principles (e.g., territorial integrity of Ukraine, which is a victim, like Croatia once was, of a brutal aggression). Chess grandmaster (who is also a Croatian citizen) Garry Kasparov would say: The most moral foreign policy also turns out to be the most effective, not cynical realpolitik. Consistency to values is the best way to promote national interests, not quid pro quo and opportunism. In a war of principles (democracy against tyranny, in a struggle for territorial integrity etc.) there can be no negotiations. And these principles need to be repeated and all the most important political officials of our homeland should do that. Russian aggression in Ukraine is not a territorial dispute or a quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing.

Russian terrorist aggression on Ukraine is about (dis)respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of an independent country, about the violation of human rights, European values, i.e., a clear violation of the international order and the UN Charter. Modern sovereigntist often forget about Ukraine’s sovereignty on which Russia (even with nuclear weapons) has no monopoly. Russia is not existentially threatened by Ukraine. It’s vice versa. Ukraine is existentially threatened every day by terrorist Russia. Ukraine is not a buffer- state if they choose not to be in a position like this. Also, their (forced) neutrality did not stop Russian aggressor. Ukraine’s fight today reminds us of Croatia’s fight yesterday, although the fight for democracy never stops. Our task is not to be the aggressor, to avoid playing the role of the eternal victim (freedom must be better armed than tyranny) and not to be a neutral observer. This simple policy should be followed by all the leaders of the free western world, and we should repeat it every day. Ukraine must be a member of EU and NATO. Ukraine must win. As reverend Desmond Tutu once said – “If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse and you say that you are neutral, the mouse will not appreciate your neutrality”.

President Milanović would say that he likes Ukraine better (than the dark and dangerous Russia), but he receives salary only from Croatian citizens. He emphasizes this often, to differentiate himself from the prime minister, whom – like the opposition – he views as someone who wants to have a career in Brussels. Very often the opposite attitudes on the same questions, in relation of President and the Government, are because the President acts like a leader of the opposition (this is contrary to our Constitution) and because the ruling party that governs Croatia, for most of the time since the independence, has had great problems with corruption (in this case, not a corruption from the Russian sources) and many ministers resigned from their positions due to non-compliance with the rules and laws. And yes, Croatia, like any other transitional country, has its own democratic deficiencies. Sometimes Ukraine is a victim not just of the Russian aggression, but also a victim of domestic politics in EU countries – e.g., when Croatian opposition decided not to vote on the decision to train Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia (a two-thirds majority was required, which the Government does not have in Parliament. The opposition obeyed President Milanović and his rhetoric about not helping Ukrainian army, because we would draw a target on our foreheads – a modernist form of Vladko Maček’s attitude).

President Milanović may be a smart individual with solid experience in international relations (as a young diplomat he also worked as NATO diplomat), so it is even worse that he thinks that we as “small and unimportant country” should be “silent” and cautious in the worst attack on the U.N. Charter since WW2. This war is about more than Ukraine. Let’s repeat – it’s about respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and borders, respect for international law and agreements, respect for freedom of navigation, respect for human rights. It’s about the fight for democracy (a fight that never stops). It’s about things which should matter to every Croatian, European, American and every citizen of the free world. Precisely because a certain number of politicians in the West are too cautious (like Milanović) is exactly why the dictator from the Kremlin still attacks, kills, rapes, and destroys everything in Ukraine. Also, there is a notion that is hovering over our heads and that is basically saying that Ukraine provoked this brutal aggression. Like a girl who provoked a rapist because she wore a short dress. People with PhD degrees say that often, while hiding themselves behind the iron curtain of realism in international relations. President Milanović is also one of those realists. Once upon a time some realists also waged that communist Yugoslavia should have stayed as a single subject of international law and did not recognized Croatia’s just fight against Serbian aggression. Realism is sometimes short-sighted and often ignores the fundamental principles of democratic order.

In the background of everything is the fear of escalation and we need to stop self-deterring ourselves. Russian escalation is our own creation (they escalated anyway, when weapons for Ukraine were stopped, because of fear of escalation in recent years, they escalated again in 2014. with illegal annexation of Crimea, they escalated in Georgia in 2008., they escalated when they occupied part of Moldova, they escalated when dictator said that the collapse of the USSR is the biggest geopolitical mistake of the 20^th century, they escalated when they crushed Prague spring or Hungarian revolution, they escalated when they signed Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, they escalated with Holodomor, their escalation originates from the times of Ivan the Terrible). Russians don’t think like we do (about escalation). They always avoid our strengths and exploit our weaknesses. Yet we act as if we are terrified of them and what they might do. And so, we self-deter. That’s what provokes them to attack – weakness and caution. A bully and a thug respect only strength. Lest we forget, evil is powerless if the good are unafraid.

Listen to the experts!

Like we said, President Milanović is an educated man, but he is NOT an expert on Ukraine or on Russia (he only tells us that Russia is dangerous, dark and does not lose wars). The Baltic states are experts on Russia. Poland is an expert in Russia. Some professors who teach history of eastern Europe are experts on that topic. Let’s listen to the experts. Ukrainians are experts on Ukraine and Russia. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor of President Zelensky said about Milanović that he should not live by the infantile myths of Russian propaganda. It looks ridiculous now. Don’t be afraid of the true history. Don’t ask brave people who are fighting in Ukraine for their freedom and their families to surrender if you yourself are not ready to defend your own land. That’s just shameful.

This is the only moral and righteous stance on Russian aggression. Let’s listen to Ukrainians, because back in 1991 some show-business stars and some western politicians spoke the same escapades about Croatia. They weren’t experts. They were wrong (about Croatia) then, just as President Milanović is wrong (about Ukraine) now.

President is not even an expert in closer neighborhood – former republics and territories of former Yugoslavia. When Milanović is talking about Kosovo being abstracted from Serbia, he is ignoring the fact that Kosovo was Serbia’s colony, which they never managed to control (they tried it by force and failed). More important, he is ignoring the fact that Kosovo, as autonomous province of former Yugoslavia (according to a confederal Constitution of Yugoslavia from 1974), had rights almost as former republics did (and Milošević quashed their autonomy). Same thing is when he or someone else is talking about Crimea being lasting Russian territory. Crimea was not always Russia (why no one ever says that Kaliningrad was always German?). And there is something called Helsinki Final Act from 1975, Budapest Memorandum from 1994, UN Charter, etc. Remember, when someone says that Crimea (part of Ukraine since 1954.) was never Ukraine, that corrupt analogy – in some distorted minds – can also apply to Croatian province Baranja or Istria. Baranja and Istria became parts of Croatia only after the WW2 (like Crimea became part of Ukraine) and in some world in which Russia wins – that territories can also be disputed. Are populist and sovereigntist politicians aware of that? Chancellor Orban, with his revisionist view, certainly is aware.

Democracy and principles must win!

In the Republic of Croatia, there is no danger from the extreme left (for the time being there are no parties like Melenchon’s party in France or Die Linke in Germany, etc.) but most citizens (at least that is what the election results show) are somewhat more conservative and vote for the center – right parties (perhaps the elections in 2024. will be different, at this time the projections are that ruling center-right Christian – democratic party – HDZ, will win the most seats in Parliament and they are more vocal for supporting Ukraine than the President of the Republic is). Fortunately, there are no AFD like parties, either. But populism in all forms is on the rise. New – age populism and the so-called (false) sovereignism sometimes takes the form (or disguise) of isolationism and in our history, we have the example of the “Home Front” (hrv. Domobranstvo) and Maček’s potential proverbs, which consciously or unconsciously evoke isolationism. We must never forget that avoiding a firm stance never stopped a bully and neutrality always helps the aggressors and dictators.

For us, pro-Russian propaganda would say that we are foreign agents (followers of George Soros, etc.), and some domestic political actors could also say that (as in every country of the collective West). Although the members of this think tank have no experience in holding the highest government positions – we know the following: whatever happens, we (as a small country) must stick to our principles and support the victim despite of all the terror and whatever the cost may be. Along with long-range missiles, modern tanks, and airplanes in the hands of freedom, principles are our best weapon in the fight against tyranny and corruption from the East. Democracy and rule of law are above everything else. This is our national interest. Ukraine must win and this must be clearly stated in Croatia and in all Allied countries of the free world.

Glory to Ukraine. Glory to heroes.

II. Matej Hittner – President of CEA

President Milanović seems to be blind to the idea that inflicting heavy losses on the Russian aggressors might shorten the war, not only due to materiel and manpower deprivation but also since poor Russian military performance might hasten regime change in Russia, which looms because of internal power plays. In that scenario, the new tzar (or general secretary) might be more amicable and willing to strike a peace deal, as he can blame the military shortcomings on the previous regime. Putin has crossed the Rubicon and gambled on a majestic victory; however, the botched invasion of Ukraine was all but a majestic victory, and to hold a grip on power, Putin accelerated Russia’s democratic backsliding and began overtly eliminating prominent internal critics of the war. However, due to the government and military apparatuses being huge organizations and the fact that no man rules alone, other powerful figures are present, and they are eyeing the throne. In a coup scenario, a gentlemen’s deal can be struck between the West and the new government that would include a peace treaty, while the West can give guarantees that it will refrain from meddling in Russia’s internal politics. With that said, everyone interested in a quick end to the war should and must have an interest in maximizing the damage dealt to the occupiers, and an excellent way of doing that is by supporting weapon transfers to Ukraine. When confronted with the possibility of sending Croatian helicopters to Ukraine, Milanović said “Not for free”, demonstrating faux sovereignism as if Croatia must be compensated as a term before sending its materiel to Ukraine. The reluctance to send arms is a result of Milanović’s general view that the Russian aggression in Ukraine is in fact “a Russian-American conflict” and that the countries who are sending military aid are being played and/or forced to do so. “Maybe Germany is at war with Russia. Good luck this time, may it end better than 70 years ago, but we are not at war with anyone”. Continuing the mindset that the ongoing war is not Croatia’s war, Milanović has expressed vehement opposition to providing military training for Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia. Furthermore, as an additional sign of disinterest, Milanović avoided meeting Nancy Pelosi during her attendance on the Crimean platform in Zagreb, Croatia. He said that the Americans asked for a meeting, I can’t attend, and that’s it. She is not the executive branch, and in two weeks she won’t be what she is now.

 

III. Daniel Hinšt – Vice President of CEA

CEA continues to analyze the main actors and patterns behind populist disinformation in Croatia. We deeply believe that the light of freedom can only be preserved with our strong efforts to detect disinformation and encourage fact-based policymaking based on critical thinking about complex problems. That skill is a civic virtue, and it will remain one of the competitive advantages of our human intelligence in comparison to AI.

Dancing on the edges

On one hand, the center-right government led by Andrej Plenković puts a lot of effort into maintaining its unquestionable Euro-Atlantic foreign policy. On the other hand, President Zoran Milanović tries to undermine that policy by dancing on the edges of the institutional framework of the EU and NATO. It is important to know that institutions are our values and attract talents. We also need to know about the institutions behind competitive global rankings associated with freedom, democracy, and competitiveness.

Let us discuss Lithuania!

What is more worrying is the lack of straightforward criticism against such populist capture among many actors in the opposition. While it would be expected to see the government and opposition taking competing positions based on different policy options on many issues, it is hard to imagine why it would be reasonable to tolerate such attempts to capture Croatia’s European and foreign policies. Moreover, since anybody should be welcome to initiate improvements in Croatia’s foreign policy, including the opposition, we could all discuss a firm Lithuanian foreign policy against Russia and China and for Ukraine and Taiwan. Therefore, anyone can call Mr. Landsbergis for advice.

Blaming the West…

There are too many examples of the President’s statements based on pro-Russian disinformation and populist attitudes, although it is fair to say that he condemned the Russian full-scale invasion. In that context, Russia cannot expect direct support for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Without having too many expectations, the Russian media and cronies are satisfied with narratives that essentially support their disinformation. The purpose of disinformation is to undermine the truth as well as trust in the enlightened values and institutions of the EU, NATO, the whole Western world, and our allies, including our partnership with the Three Seas Initiative. The basic idea is to constantly blame the Western elites and, at least, to relativize Russian crimes and influence. Besides, the ideology of (anti-American and anti-British) whataboutism has been popular among left-wing and right-wing populists for a long time.

These are key takeaways from the President’s statements on Russia and Ukraine:

• NATO came far enough to the east of Europe.
• Tomorrow, a country will join NATO, let’s say Montenegro, when I welcome someone into my family, I want to know who they are.
• Croatia owes nothing to anyone to be asked to be a sheep for slaughter.
• Let Finland and Sweden join NATO – let them poke the angry bear in the eye.
• It is an American-Russian war. They go over the Ukrainian back, with American money.
• (This war) has nothing to do with Ukraine or Russia, but with American politics.
• This (conflict) is happening in the suburbs of the capital of Russia.
• We are no one’s vassals, but a state that must understand that it has its own position.
• Washington and NATO are waging a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine. And vice versa. The plan cannot be to remove Putin. Sanctions cannot be the plan. We will not achieve anything. They go from war to war. What should we be? American slaves?
• There are ways to preserve Ukraine, at least 99 percent of it.
• I see a strong Russian interest, and I also see Ukraine.
• An arrangement that will consider Russia’s security interests must be found.
• We are getting deeper and deeper into the conflict with the superpower.
• The overthrow of pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych was a coup d’état that was encouraged by the EU and Washington.
• Americans have nothing to teach the Ukrainians.
• Who is responsible for so many deaths in Ukraine? Are the Ukrainians to blame or those who incited them to it?
• Every day we talk less and less about these unfortunate people in Ukraine.
• Ukraine is not an ally and Americans are trying to make Ukraine an ally by force.
• Today’s EU is a misery, zero – who gave the status of the EU candidate to Ukraine.
• The EU treats us like deaf-blind fools.
• The European Commission started dealing with war and peace.
• I recognize a lie with a telescope – it is the European Union.

And there are media links about all that.