Croatian President on Russian aggression

21/01/2025

Croatian President’s position towards Russian aggression deviates from the policy positions of the majority of Western leaders within the EU and NATO. CEA has already written about the current Croatian President and his attitudes toward Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Matija Horvat, a member of the Executive Board of the Centre for Public Policy and Economic Analysis (CEA), analyses (new/old) populist statements from the incumbent (old/new) Croatian President regarding Russian aggression and his view on foreign policy. On January 12, 2025, Zoran Milanović won the second mandate as Croatian President by an overwhelming majority in the second round. His statements are nothing more than a consistency in his foreign policy view. The President thinks he is helping Croatia (with his rhetoric), but instead, he’s doing the opposite. CEA’s project Detektor aims to detect populist disinformation to educate the (re)public and preserve our Western values and alliance.

Introduction

Croatian President’s overall foreign policy stance has been clear and consistent since the full–scale invasion of Ukraine. He often reiterates the Kremlin’s talking points:

“Ukraine should not be allowed into NATO” (ignoring Ukraine’s agency, because Putin doesn’t want NATO on his borders; so, he breaches Ukrainian borders)[1]
“The Ukrainian nuclear program is the reason for the Russian invasion” (repeats Russian narrative as the justification for the so-called “special military operation”, even though Ukraine’s entire nuclear arsenal was handed over to Russia by the Budapest Memorandum of 1994)[2]
“The massacre in Buča may not have been committed by the Russians” (and “Ukraine is corrupted”)[3]
“Responsibility for the war lies with Ukraine, not Russia” (“Ukraine provoked Russia”)[4]
“Glory to Ukraine/Slava Ukrajini” is the same as a Nazi salute” (this is – “the battle cry of the most radical chauvinists of Western Ukraine who worked with the Nazis and killed hundreds of thousands of Poles and Jews. I don’t want to hear that in the Croatian space”)[5]
“Stepan Bandera is worse than Pavelic and Hitler” (historical disinformation that goes well with the Kremlin’s “denazification” or “anti-fascism” narrative)[6]

Kremlin media circles are sometimes celebrating Milanović’s “rational worldview”. This worldview is nothing but an (at least indirect) appeasement or more status quo that always goes to the aggressor’s favor and not the victims. When “realists” are trying to reach the status quo, they forget that there is no status quo, because the margin for broader conflict (as the price too) just keeps going up (not down), because the enemy is persistent and is moving ever closer.

Unfortunately, like in many western states, for politicians, it is not prudent to talk about the enemy, because voters (always) want “safety” or someone who can promise them that he would keep them out of wars (to give those promises is also populism). They are all forgetting what, American founding father, Benjamin Franklin said: “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”

President’s latest messages are (mostly) linked to NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU). This mission will comprise approximately 700 personnel from NATO Allied nations and select partners. The effort will be headquartered in Wiesbaden, Germany, with key logistical hubs in the Alliance’s eastern flank. Croatia should send two (2) officers to Germany, although the President says that they are going to – Ukraine and that situation room scenario means (involvement in a) war.

Let’s summarize the President’s latest (but generally constant) messages and stance regarding all the above (mostly from his election campaign in 2024):

“We are a small country”/ When the big ones are fighting, the little ones should be under the table[7]

And in all of this, we, as a small nation, but as a nation that is aware of itself and that has only its own skin and its own head and its own heart, must take care of ourselves. We must take care more of ourselves and our own interests and be constantly aware of what is happening and try to understand why it is happening. And when we make decisions and when we make projections – political, security, about participation or non-participation – we must always take this into account.… Those who created Croatia – politically and with arms/weapons – did not think that we would automatically implement anyone’s decisions… but a Croatia that would be skeptical in its own interest… But also, honest and loyal to those with whom it signed an alliance… for decisions we need full information, good knowledge and our own clear head.”[8]

With all this, the President is trying to reach voters who inherited a more isolationist worldview based on the old saying attributed to Vladko Maček, a Croatian politician before and during World War 2 (leitmotif of Milanović’s rhetoric): When the big ones are fighting, the little ones should be under the table. This means Croatia should be silent in challenging times, because – we are a small country and could get hurt if we are to be exposed (as an allied state), to a sort of isolationism. The President ignores the fact that this saying didn’t help Croatia during WW2.

The “small country” argument is also connected with the collective memory of the so-called non–alignment movement in the First Cold War (for which some authors also say that it never really ended), in which communist Yugoslavia, with dictator Tito, was between the conflicting blocks (some neutrality). Also, there’s a historical precedent and legacy of the Republic of Dubrovnik (Ragusa) that existed from the Middle Ages until the beginning of the 19^th century (old Dubrovnik, as a small free republic, had good (trading) relations with major powers of that time and conducted some form of neutrality or business as usual).

“National interest”[9]

What is always interlinked with a small country argument is national interest. The President repeats this message often. He thinks our national interest should be (his notion of) “security/safety” and not to poke a big bear. The national interest argument is one of the most popular arguments of all the actors who are somehow neutral (or addressing “both sides”) in the question of Russian aggression.

The problem is who has the right or a monopoly to define what is someone’s national interest, i.e. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? The second level of that problem comes up when someone, who takes the monopoly on the “national interest”, gets 75% of the votes in the second round of Presidential elections.

“Ukraine is not an Ally”

Like many politicians President, considers himself a legalist. Of course, he doesn’t connect this concept with our international obligations as a NATO member, but he repeats it when it is convenient to him. De iure Ukraine is not an Ally state. De facto it is much more – it is the shield of Europe and defender of the free world. Of course, the President would reject this notion as an idealistic and would repeat his (pro)Russian realism, for which he claims to be – in a national interest.

“Should we help our allies, Poland, Lithuania? We are here, we are allies for them. We owe nothing to those with whom we are not formally allies, and we are not even able to give anything. Croatian defense material goes away, and there is no replacement, it will come in five or six years. It is a concern for the country, that it has an armed force…”[10]

In his rhetoric, Milanović often attacks various actors (with brutal humor) and often also backs down (a little). But for him, Ukraine – which here he omits to name directly – is de iure not an ally, so in his worldview, there is no need to help (at least, not in a military sense, because it fuels the war).It is evident that (especially at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025) current President Milanović (when he is not repeating the Kremlin’s talking points) wants Croatia to be a part of the West and his speeches are always filled with national pride and caution – because we are a small nation (that suffered greatly in the past, so in challenging times, we must be – prudent).

At the same time, Milanović also produces false dilemmas (because nobody asked Croatian soldiers to fight somebody else’s wars), because he knows that this will probably help him in his fight against (corrupt) HDZ (and Plenković, who in the opinion of populist Milanović, listens only to Brussels), and he will keep us from harm’s way. We can ask ourselves – If this HDZ wasn’t pro-western, would the President then be more pro-western (not repeating the Kremlin’s talking points)?

“…I would never give Presidential approval for training Ukrainian soldiers…because it leads us to war…/…we are pushed to a war…/NATO is directly involved in the war…”[11]

Because of the opposition voting – at the directive of the President (whose role as a leader of the opposition was and still is unconstitutional) – the Croatian Parliament already rejected the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine), where Croatian military instructors could have participated in helping Ukrainian soldiers in training. President (and most of the parliamentary opposition) was against that – because it could lead us to a war, or we are putting a target on our foreheads. As we already mentioned, it is just a logical sequel or a continuation of a small country argument, or his idea of “national interest”, or falseness of “Ukraine is not an Ally”, etc.

After EUMAM, before the Croatian parliament (Hrvatski Sabor) came another initiative that is (also) stalled, for the time being. It is another attempt for Croatia to help train Ukrainian soldiers through the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU). President said that he refuses to give his approval for this activity, because (again) – it is pushing us into war.

A two-thirds majority of all members of Parliament (in this case 101 votes) is required to decide to send Croatian soldiers on a foreign mission. It looks obvious, like in the last similar voting, that this majority won’t be reached. HDZ, a ruling center-right party, and coalition partners have about 76 – 80 votes for sure (but it is difficult/not realistic to comprehend they will get 101 votes).

“Croatian soldier will not fight other people’s wars”[12]

…The world around us is falling apart, the Western world, of which we are a part, is entering a new dimension. We are a small nation and a state that was created in a war of liberation. No one has a similar experience to ours. No one was attacked in the 90’s when everyone was looking to the future…”[13]

Here Milanović induces fear and disinformation about “the end of the Western world” and ignores the fact that citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo – also were the victims of Serbian aggression in the 1990s. It was a much more brutal war (Serbian aggression) in BiH than in Croatia, to be fair, but Milanović only sees – Croatia first.

“…The current disputes that are being waged by others over the weaker ones, that is not Croatian business, and Croatian soldiers will not go there. I will start with something that is most worrying, and that is the state of the world… We do not see that the world is threatened by a crisis of hot-headed people and nuclear weapons. We must take care of ourselves and our security, maintaining a constructive and loyal relationship with our allies because Croatia is part of the West…”[14]

Milanović again introduces the false dilemma that “somebody is pushing Croatia into a war” and says that “someone threatens” with nuclear weapons – implying “both sides” and ignoring Russia or delegitimizing the Ukrainian agency. To be fair, we must repeat that in this Presidential campaign, the President did emphasize the fact that Croatia is a part of the West, but after that correct statement often comes (with the word) “but” which neutralizes the first part of the sentence –Milanović often uses such sentences.

“It is clear where we belong, but we will not be anyone’s poodle or puppet, and that is Andrej Plenković’s policy. It is an unimaginative and subservient policy. Have you ever heard that Croatia had any objection to the decision from Brussels? At least once? Zero, everything is great. It can’t be like that in life…”[15]

Many Croatian right-wing politicians dislike Plenković’s “Brussels” policy because they think he is pursuing a career in the European Commission or that Brussels is working against Croatian interests. Therefore, Milanović takes the sovereigntist stance of “Tuđman 2.0”; to show the people he is only concerned about Croatian interests, and he repeats this whenever Ukraine/NATO are blocking his way or view on his international politics.

“The end of the war is not in sight”[16]

In certain circumstances President will also underline that Russian imperialistic aggression on Ukraine (of course, he never calls it imperialistic aggression) is going badly for Ukrainians and that the end of war is not in sight, because the Russian army can’t be defeated/Russia never loses wars. Milanović often ignores facts about Russia’s strength.

Like all messages listed above it is just a continuation of his worldview on foreign policy. A policy in which he rarely visits Western allies but keeps in touch with pro-Russian secessionists from Bosnia & Herzegovina (or dines with Orban), because it is in Croatia’s national interest.

The following two statements are not just for domestic purposes. They are much more universal. The first one is about the nuclear escalation:

“Nuclear escalation”

“NATO directly, logistically, forwarders organize deliveries for the war in Ukraine. I’m against it. I have always been and always will be in favor of humanitarian aid. However, for the delivering of weapons and the escalation of the conflict with Russia, after two and a half years, it becomes completely clear that what I said is correct, that this war cannot be won…without nuclear escalation….”[17]

There is practically no populist out there who has not shared fear about nukes among his voters. There is practically no populist that didn’t ignore Ukrainian agency in this (global) war (because everything will be settled by Americans and Russians).

The second also sounds like the Kremlin’s narrative and is malicious (the President said that after the NATO summit in Washington in July 2024):

“It is important to maintain dialogue with Moscow, I am not only referring to Putin, and we know who should talk to the Russians, it is the Americans. It happened ten days ago after that incident on the beach and after that, some things changed. I consider that important and necessary, the relationship between Moscow and Washington is important, everything else is decoration.”[18]

This statement was hidden (and not addressed well in our media) in his classical monologue when he (of course, without saying it loudly) accused Ukrainians of launching missiles or drones on a beach in Sevastopol. At that time Russians were targeting children’s cancer treatment hospital in Kyiv, but Milanović decided to say something in fashion – what about Iraq.

He didn’t say that Crimea is an occupied territory of Ukraine or implied something reasonable like: Who would ever go for a swim or on a beach party in occupied territory of Ukraine (of course, the Russians would). What kind of “persons” or “managers” of temporarily occupied territories would ever give someone permission to enjoy on the beach in these times. But the damage (on Ukraine) was done, and it was standard procedure for Milanović – just another day in the office. His humor is only directed against the governing HDZ, never against Russia.

Every other message regarding Ukraine is only a derivation or modification of all listed above. We can sublimate that the President is afraid of the enemy (as a lot of politicians in the West are too). Moreover (like many politicians in the West), he wants to stay in NATO but doesn’t want any kind of obligation (even if he didn’t oppose them earlier) to the Alliance, regarding Russian aggression on Ukraine (or potential conflict anywhere). There are no significant differences between Croatian President Milanović and the Hungarian or Slovak Prime minister (or current Slovak President and other populists across the world, although we emphasize that Croatia is not dependent on Russian energy sources).

What Croatia must do to prevent those (or similar) disinformation?

We emphasize the need for a public debate in which experts (but not pro-Russian “realists” in international relations) will explain to the politicians the global moment and significance of Ukraine’s victory, which will bring more safety/security to the world and particularly to our neighboring region.

It must be explained that the Ukrainian fight is no other people’s war, but a global war (not a Russian-Ukrainian war) launched by dictatorships against democracies and a fight to protect international law (at least, to aspirations and values that are enshrined in international documents).Its kinetic field is in Ukraine (as a neo-colonial war from fascist aggressor), but in all other ways, it is also taking place in Europe and the free world. We understand it is not popular to say this publicly, yet the role of politicians is not to be popular, but to listen to the experts and explain this publicly.

The President’s statements on foreign policy have the basis of “our security/national interest”. Also, many positions that the President and many Croatian politicians hold in the context of foreign policy are related to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Croatia’s “national interest” should not be to make deals with Serbian nationalistic and pro–Russian politicians in BiH or anywhere. The President (and our government) should focus on the position of Bosnia & Herzegovina as such, which should be a part of the political West – EU and NATO, when it satisfies all membership criteria. Therefore, the President and all Croatian policymakers must proactively dismantle Russian and Serbian influence in the Western Balkans. CEA will continue to address this issue within our project Detektor.

Also, we have forgotten what NATO is and because of whom it was created in 1949. Many Croatian politicians still repeat the flawed conception that we entered NATO because of Serbia. NATO was never created because of Serbia (although it rightly intervened in 1994-1995 in Bosnia and 1999 to stop Serbia from committing crimes in Kosovo. However, NATO missed an opportunity to intervene against Serbia and its proxies in 1991 to stop its aggression and imperialism). NATO was created to stop the looming Soviet (read Russian) aggression in the European continent (and the whole North Atlantic). Croatian politicians need to explain this to their voters.

Significance and knowledge of foreign policy (a core business of Presidential authority according to the Constitution) is below expectations in Croatia compared with developed western democracies. Confronted with a question on a possible peace mission in Ukraine (to protect the frozen border) and Croatian involvement in it – no candidate in the Presidential campaign gave a clear and simple answer (except Milanović who adamantly opposed it throughout the whole campaign). Also, practically nobody speaks about China! That means that there’s a lot of work in educating the voters about foreign policy and the world around us (which is not only located in Western Herzegovina).

CEA think tank is constantly emphasizing that we must know our enemy and that we must be aware of its malign influence. We already explained to our politicians why Ukraine is so important to us (as well as the fact that the President is disinforming the public with half-truths or plain Kremlin narrative). The collective notion that “we are a small country” or the folk story of “little ones, big ones and tables” should cease to exist, because it’s negating our agency as a sovereign and independent country (and, indirectly, Ukrainian agency in its fight against the enemy). Therefore, our role model – as a “small country” should be (for example) Lithuania.

Conclusion

Croatia has a significant problem of inconsistency in foreign policy, which is also generated by the flaws of “cohabitation” in our Constitution and is exposing us in a bad light to the Western allies. In our political arena, Ukraine is a collateral victim of those problems associated with well-established geopolitical risks of disinformation. Although the Croatian President and his voters reject the notion that he is a Russophile, since the start of the full–scale invasion of Ukraine, his statements are opposite from the position of the current center-right government, and he often repeats the Kremlin’s talking points.

There are no official investigations in Croatia on Russian collusion, but as we can find out from the open-source analysis, the Croatian President is not a direct pro-Russian player. Fortunately, Croatia is not dependent on Russian energy sources, like some careless European states. One of the factors is the LNG terminal, which has been backed by the US and the EU, and decisive actions from the center-right government, while the center-left opposition was opposed or at least reserved toward that strategic project.

However, the President’s positions on Russian aggression against Ukraine and (primarily military) aid to Ukraine are feeding the Russian mill and narrative. Also, such positions go against unity within NATO and the EU, which is causing enormous damage to real national interests of Croatia. All this has also been forgotten, because of a strong anti-HDZ rhetoric that prevailed among many voters (during and after the Presidential campaign in December 2024 and January 2025).

The President’s (foreign policy) narrative on Ukraine mostly serves for battling with a ruling party on domestic terrain. We can estimate that at least one part of the President’s voters support Ukraine in its fight for survival and independence (and the majority of Croatian citizens are pro-Western). The evidence is the official data from the Kiel Institute that puts Croatia on the (high moral ground) 11^thplace in the world (proportionally to our GDP) regarding aid to Ukraine, which is due to the government’s policy, as opposed to the President. The President rejects military help to Ukraine, but it is good (for the time being) that he does not have any constitutional tools to stop this important aid.

Milanović has been successful in catching many right-wing voters and combining them with the left-wing and center-left voters – all this is necessary to defeat the center-right. In that way, he represents a personification of the first Croatian President – Franjo Tuđman (who was a leftist in his youth and later a communist dissident, and then, a national leader with a strong attitude on the authoritarian right wing that often used “small country” argument).

For now, Milanović does not have the tools for autocratic leadership but violates the Constitution (acting as a chief of opposition) and most constitutional experts confirmed that fact. Of course, there’s a flip side to that coin, because the Prime minister tries to control all the branches of the powers. President often says that he is a “barrier” for the ruling party (HDZ) not to “capture” all the institutions.

Therefore, to fight against the ruling HDZ, his oppositional foreign policy statements serve as a populist barrage (not directly on Ukrainians, although his words are certainly not in Ukraine’s favor but rather serve Russian narratives). Those center-left and progressive voters who favor Milanović ignore the facts about his right-wing sovereigntist populist rhetoric and others (from the right spectrum) find him suitable for preserving national interests. Political analysts are saying that Milanović catches a certain number of the ruling HDZ voters too, and others from the right wing.

There is a potential danger that, ahead of the next parliamentary elections, the urban, left- “liberal” (progressive) opposition will take over Milanović’s rhetoric on foreign policy; the right-wing populist opposition already has. For example, because they are tired of wars (another deprivation of Ukraine), we should build more kindergartens or schools or hospitals than invest in our collective defense. Such deductive reasoning is often used by the left opposition to emphasize false dilemmas in their fiscal priorities. With this kind of (divided) foreign policy, our enemies will further exploit opportunities for their corrupt agenda.

It is obvious that in a democracy, we cannot be united on all political aspects, but we must be united on the most important issues that define our real national interest – within the EU and NATO. If we are united – to quote the Ukrainian national anthem – Our enemies will perish like the dew in the sun.

[1] https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/video-milanovic-ukrajinu-ne-treba-pustiti-u-nato/2342474.aspx

[2] https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/milanovic-besramno-laze-o-ukrajinskoj-prijetnji-nuklearnim-oruzjem/2344031.aspx

[3] https://hrvatska-danas.com/2022/04/04/video-milanovic-ukrajina-nije-bila-bas-demokratska-buca-je-daleko-ne-znam-o-tome-nista-rusi-su-se-povukli/

[4] https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/je-li-milanovic-putinov-covjek/2358153.aspx

[5] https://www.vecernji.hr/vijesti/ruski-mediji-pisu-o-milanovicu-usporedio-je-ukrajinski-nacionalni-pozdrav-s-fasistickim-1684452

[6] https://n1info.hr/vijesti/milanovic-kaze-da-je-pavelic-bio-kavalir-za-banderu-stvarno/

[7] https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/milanovic-je-ovaj-put-nadmasio-sam-sebe-jucer-je-rekao-nesto-zapanjujuce-hoce-li-se-sada-oglasiti-iz-sdp-a-15517786?cx_linkref=jl_home_najnovije

[8] https://www.predsjednik.hr/vijesti/predsjednik-milanovic-na-obiljezavanju-dana-hrz-a-nestabilnost-u-svijetu-je-velika-i-sigurnosni-rizik-ogroman-moramo-brinuti-o-sebi-i-svojim-interesima/

[9] https://www.telegram.hr/politika-kriminal/vlada-bi-opet-da-nasi-vojnici-obucavaju-ukrajince-milanovic-uskratio-potpis-da-trebamo-pomoci-zrtvi-agresije-ali-moram-nas-zastititi-od-rata/

[10] https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/milanovic-odrzao-prvi-skup-imali-smo-cobansku-prevaru-ispricavam-se-cobanima/2624462.aspx

[11] https://www.telegram.hr/politika-kriminal/milanovic-nato-se-direktno-ukljucuje-u-rat-a-plenkovicevog-drvenog-lutka-molim-da-ne-upada-u-rijec-kad-stariji-razgovaraju/

[12] https://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/milanovic-hrvatski-vojnik-nece-voditi-tudje-ratove/2624053.aspx